Republicans have made Americans believe transgender athletes are everywhere. They’re barely anywhere

One consequence of Republicans constantly running on trans sports bans is that Americans presume that orders of magnitude more transgender athletes compete than actually do.A poll conducted by The Bulwark and independent Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Pablo Torre shows that misperception. About 15 percent of Americans believe between 1 percent and 5 percent of athletes in the NCAA are transgender, meaning as many as 1 in 20 athletes. Another 14 percent of Americans think trans athletes make up between 6 percent and 25 percent of NCAA athletes, or as many as 1 in 4.Combined, those respondents account for 29 percent of those surveyed, nearly matching the 31 percent who, correctly, believe fewer than 1 percent of student-athletes are trans.That’s despite the fact that the NCAA in February 2025 imposed new restrictions barring trans girls and women from competing in women’s sports events, the only transgender participation most state bans address at all. The new rules were consistent with an executive order issued by President Donald Trump near the start of his second term.Related: Poll shows public support sinking for transgender athletes to play based on gender identityThe NCAA tells us effectively ZERO trans student-athletes are now competing in women's sports.Why does 15% of America think there are tens of thousands?Politics are winning on the back of fiction: youtu.be/dDSf3Sqnl-w?...[image or embed]— Pablo Torre (@pablo.show) October 27, 2026 at 1:50 PMEven before then, NCAA President Charlie Baker testified to the U.S. Senate in 2024 that only 10 trans athletes, out of 510,000 nationwide, were competing in NCAA events. After commissioning the poll, the NCAA told Torre that no trans athletes are currently competing in any NCAA competitions nationwide, as the organization is in full compliance with Trump’s edict.Regardless of the numbers, true or imagined, the poll found that a majority of Americans support trans sports bans. Some 51 percent of Americans,