Anti-trans ballot measures are a political test run for the 2028 presidential election

In 2004, a coordinated wave of ballot initiatives against marriage equality swept the country, leaving a trail of political wreckage for our community and the entire nation. That same playbook is back for the 2026 midterm elections, and just like more than two decades ago, it’s not about public safety or protecting children, it’s about political power.As LGBTQ movement leaders with decades of advocacy experience, we need to loudly sound the alarm because transgender people face a coordinated assault on this year's ballots in five states.Transgender people are family, friends, colleagues, and fellow Americans. We must connect our values to our votes. No one’s humanity, privacy, and health decisions should be put up for majority vote. Our community and allies must show up to vote for everyone’s right to be themselves, be safe, and be free, every time, everywhere.While this year’s crop of proposals attempts to codify cruelty against hard-working transgender Americans, history tells us these measures are also threats against the lives and liberties of all LGBTQ people.In 2004, ballot initiatives that sought to ban marriage equality in state constitutions were dropped into 11 states, including critical swing states like Georgia and Michigan. All 11 bans passed. Disproportionate attention and fear tactics around marriage equality also drove anti-equality voters to the polls, and helped them secure the presidency and Congress. The fallout was generational with the re-elected President Bush nominating virulently anti-LGBTQ Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court, and John Roberts as Chief Justice.Fast forward to 2026. Targeted questions in Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Washington ask voters to roll back protections and enshrine discrimination against transgender people into state law. These states and the underlying efforts during this midterm cycle also serve as testing grounds for the 2028 Presidential election. Political operatives will stress-test field